# 18 Inference for comparing paired means

In Chapter 17, analysis was done to summarize a quantitative variable measured on a single population. What if we were to measure that variable twice on the same observational unit? In this case, the two measurements are dependent—knowledge of the observations in one group gives us information about what we would expect to happen in the other group. Sometimes dependency is not something that can be addressed through a statistical method. However, this particular dependency, pairing, can be modeled quite effectively by using the same tools for a single quantitative variable from Chapter 17 applied to the differences between two measurements on each pair.

Paired data represent a particular type of experimental structure where the analysis is somewhat akin to a one-sample analysis (see Chapter 17) but has other features that resemble a two-sample analysis (which we will see in Chapter 19). Quantitative measurements are made on each of two different levels of an explanatory variable, but those measurements are paired — each observational unit consists of two measurements, and the two measurements are subtracted such that only the difference is retained. Table 18.1 presents some examples of studies where paired designs were implemented.

Table 18.1: Examples of studies where a paired design is used to measure the difference in the measurement over two conditions.
Observational unit Comparison groups Measurement Value of interest
Car Smooth Turn vs Quick Spin amount of tire tread after 1,000 miles difference in tread
Married heterosexual couple Husband vs Wife age difference in age
Textbook UCLA vs Amazon price of new text difference in price
Individual person Pre-course vs Post-course exam score difference in score

Paired data.

Two sets of observations are paired if each observation in one set has a special correspondence or connection with exactly one observation in the other data set.

For inferential methods applied to paired data, the analysis is virtually identical to the one-sample approach given in Chapter 17. The key to working with paired data is to consider the measurement of interest to be the difference in measured values across the pair of observations. Thinking about the differences as a single observation on an observational unit changes the paired setting into the one-sample setting.

A comparison of the notation used in Chapter 17 and the notation used in this chapter is shown below. The subscript “d” stands for “difference” since our variable is now a paired difference.

Notation for a single quantitative variable (left) and paired differences (right).

One Mean Paired Mean Difference
Population mean $$\mu$$ $$\mu_d$$
Population standard deviation $$\sigma$$ $$\sigma_d$$
Sample mean $$\bar{x}$$ $$\bar{x}_d$$
Sample standard deviation $$s$$ $$s_d$$
Sample size $$n$$ $$n$$

Instead of $$n$$ representing the number of observational units, with paired data, $$n$$ represents the number of pairs in paired samples. Similarly, $$\mu_d$$, $$\sigma_d$$, $$\bar{x}_d$$ and $$s_d$$ are all calculated using the differences in measured values within pairs.

## 18.1 Shifted bootstrap test for $$H_0: \mu_d = 0$$

Consider an experiment done to measure whether tire brand Smooth Turn or tire brand Quick Spin has longer tread wear. That is, after 1,000 miles on a car, which brand of tires has more tread, on average?

### 18.1.1 Observed data

The observed data represent 25 tread measurements (in inches) taken on 25 Smooth Turn tires and 25 Quick Spin tires. The study used a total of 25 cars, so on each car, one brand was randomly assigned to the front driver’s side tire and the other to the front passenger’s side tire. Figure 18.1 presents the observed data. The Smooth Turn manufacturer looks at the box plot below and says:

clearly the tread on Smooth Turn tires is higher, on average, than the tread on Quick Spin tires after 1,000 miles of driving.

The Quick Spin manufacturer is skeptical and retorts:

but with only 25 cars, it seems that the variability in road conditions (sometimes one tire hits a pothole, etc.) could be what leads to the small difference in average tread amount.

We’d like to be able to systematically distinguish between what the Smooth Turn manufacturer sees in the plot and what the Quick Spin manufacturer sees in the plot. Fortunately for us, we have an excellent way to simulate the natural variability (from road conditions, etc.) that can lead to tires being worn at different rates: bootstrapping. Figure 18.1: Boxplots of the tire tread remaining after 1,000 miles by the brand of tire from which the original measurements came. Gray lines connect the same cars.

Since these are paired data, we are only interested in the differences in tire tread between the two brands on each car. The dotplot in Figure 18.2 displays these differences, with summary statistics displayed below.

favstats(differences)
#>       min        Q1  median     Q3    max    mean      sd  n missing
#>  -0.00506 -0.000972 0.00205 0.0042 0.0107 0.00196 0.00431 25       0 Figure 18.2: Difference in tire tread (in inches) remaining after 1,000 miles between the two brands (Smooth Turn – Quick Spin).

### 18.1.2 Variability of the statistic

A simulation-based test will identify whether the differences seen in the box plot below could plausibly have happened just by chance variability. As before, we will simulate the variability in sample statistics under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. In this study, the null hypothesis is that average difference in tire tread wear between Smooth Turn and Quick Spin tires is zero. The experiment was conducted to determine whether Smooth Turn or Quick Spin has longer tread wear. Taking the order of differences to be Smooth Turn $$-$$ Quick Spin, we express the hypotheses as follows.

• $$H_0: \mu_d = 0$$, the true mean difference in tire tread remaining after 1,000 miles between Smooth Turn and Quick Spin (Smooth Turn $$-$$ Quick Spin) tires is equal to zero.
• $$H_A: \mu_d \neq 0$$, the true mean difference in tire tread remaining after 1,000 miles between Smooth Turn and Quick Spin (Smooth Turn $$-$$ Quick Spin) tires is not equal to zero.

To simulate the null distribution of mean differences in tread, we will implement the same method used in Section 17.2 using a shifted bootstrap distribution.

Shifted bootstrap null distribution for a sample mean difference.

To simulate a null distribution of sample mean differences under the null hypothesis $$H_0: \mu_d = 0$$,

1. Subtract $$\bar{x}_d$$ from each difference in the original sample:152
$x_1 - \bar{x}_d , \hspace{2.5mm} x_2 - \bar{x}_d, \hspace{2.5mm} x_3 - \bar{x}_d, \hspace{2.5mm} \ldots, \hspace{2.5mm} x_n - \bar{x}_d.$ Note that if $$\bar{x}_d$$ is a negative number, then you will be adding the distance between $$0$$ and $$\bar{x}_d$$ to each value.
2. Generate 1000s of bootstrap resamples from this shifted distribution, plotting the shifted bootstrap sample mean difference each time.

To use bootstrapping to generate a null distribution of sample mean differences in tire tread, we first have to shift the data to be centered at the null value of zero. We shift the data by subtracting $$\bar{x}_d$$ = 0.00196 from each tire tread difference in the sample. This process is displayed in Figure 18.3. Figure 18.3: Mean difference in tire tread (in inches) remaining after 1,000 miles between the two brands (Smooth Turn – Quick Spin) (blue), and the shifted mean differences in tire tread (red), found by subtracting 0.00196 to each original difference.

### 18.1.3 Observed statistic vs. null value

By repeatedly sampling 25 cars with replacement from the shifted bootstrap null distribution, we can create a distribution of the sample mean difference in tire tread, as seen in Figure 18.4. As expected (because the differences were generated under the null hypothesis), the histogram is centered at zero. A line has been drawn at the observed mean difference, $$\bar{x}_d$$ = 0.00196, which is nowhere near the differences simulated from natural variability when we assume there is no difference in tire tread wear between brands. Because the observed mean difference in tire tread is so far away from the natural variability of the randomized mean differences in tire tread, we believe that there is a significant difference in tire tread wear between Smooth Turn and Quick Spin brand tires, on average.

To be precise, the proportion of simulated $$\bar{x}_d$$’s that are 0.00196 inches or further away from zero is 0.023. This p-value gives us strong evidence in favor of our alternative $$H_A: \mu_d \neq 0$$. Our conclusion is that the extra amount of tire tread remaining in Smooth Turn brand tires after 1,000 miles, on average, is due to more than just natural variability. Data from this experiment suggest that, on average, Smooth Turn tires differ in tread wear compared to Quick Spin tires. Figure 18.4: Histogram of 1000 simulated mean differences in tire tread, assuming that the two brands perform equally, on average.

## 18.2 Bootstrap confidence interval for $$\mu_d$$

In an earlier edition of this textbook, we found that Amazon prices were, on average, lower than those of the UCLA Bookstore for UCLA courses in 2010. It’s been several years, and many stores have adapted to the online market, so we wondered, how is the UCLA Bookstore doing today?

### 18.2.1 Observed data

We sampled 201 UCLA courses. Of those, 68 required books could be found on Amazon.

The ucla_textbooks_f18 data can be found in the openintro package.

A portion of the data set from these courses is shown in Table 18.2, where prices are in US dollars. Here the differences are taken as \begin{align*} \text{UCLA Bookstore price} - \text{Amazon price} \end{align*}

It is important that we always subtract using a consistent order; here Amazon prices are always subtracted from UCLA prices. The first difference shown in Table 18.2 is computed as $$47.97 - 47.45 = 0.52$$. Similarly, the second difference is computed as $$14.26 - 13.55 = 0.71$$, and the third is $$13.50 - 12.53 = 0.97$$.

Table 18.2: Four cases of the ucla_textbooks_f18 dataset.
subject course_num bookstore_new amazon_new price_diff
American Indian Studies M10 48.0 47.5 0.52
Anthropology 2 14.3 13.6 0.71
Arts and Architecture 10 13.5 12.5 0.97
Asian M60W 49.3 55.0 -5.69

A dot plot of the data is shown in Figure 18.5, with summary statistics displayed below.

favstats(ucla_textbooks_f18$price_diff) #> min Q1 median Q3 max mean sd n missing #> -12.2 -0.992 0.625 2.99 75.2 3.58 13.4 68 0 Figure 18.5: Distribution of differences in new textbook price (UCLA Bookstore – Amazon) in US dollars for 68 required textbooks at UCLA. Each textbook has two corresponding prices in the data set: one for the UCLA Bookstore and one for Amazon. Thus, the two prices for the same textbook are paired, and our analysis need only focus on the differences in textbook price between the two suppliers. ### 18.2.2 Variability of the statistic Following the example of bootstrapping a single mean, the observed mean differences can be bootstrapped in order to understand the variability of the average difference from sample to sample. We can then use the bootstrap distribution of mean differences to calculate bootstrap percentile confidence intervals for the true mean difference in the population. In Figure 18.6, a 99% confidence interval for the mean difference in the cost of a new book at the UCLA Bookstore compared with Amazon has been calculated. The bootstrap percentile interval is computing using the 0.5th percentile and 99.5th percentile of the bootstrapped mean differences and is found to be (-0.044, 8.138). Since this confidence interval contains zero, it does not support the hypothesis that the UCLA Bookstore price is, on average, higher than the Amazon price. That is, since the interval contains both negative and positive values, it is plausible that the prices of UCLA textbooks are lower, on average, than Amazon, and it is also plausible that the prices of UCLA textbooks are higher, on average, than Amazon. We would interpret the interval as follows: We are 99% confident that, on average, new textbook prices at the UCLA Bookstore are between$0.04 lower to $8.14 higher than the same textbook on Amazon. Figure 18.6: Bootstrap distribution for the average difference in new book price at the UCLA Bookstore versus Amazon (UCLA – Amazon). The bounds for a 99% bootstrap percentile confidence interval are superimposed in red, and the observed mean difference in new book price is superimposed in blue. ## 18.3 Theory-based inferential methods for $$\mu_d$$ As with the simulation-based inferential methods for a paired mean difference, theory-based inferential methods for this scenario are identical to the theory-based inferential methods for a single mean—only the notation differs. ### 18.3.1 Observed data Consider again the paired textbook price data in the previous section. A histogram of the differences in new textbook price between the UCLA Bookstore and Amazon is shown in Figure 18.7, and summary statistics are displayed in Table 18.3. Table 18.3: Summary statistics for the 68 new textbook price differences (UCLA – Amazon). $$n$$ $$\bar{x}_{d}$$ $$s_{d}$$ 68$3.58 13.42 Figure 18.7: Histogram of the difference in price for each book sampled. ### 18.3.2 Variability of the statistic To analyze a paired data set, we simply analyze the differences using the same one-sample $$t$$-distribution techniques we applied in Section 17.3. Set up a hypothesis test to determine whether, on average, the UCLA Bookstore’s price for a new textbook is higher than the price of the same book on Amazon. Also, check the conditions for whether we can move forward with the test using the $$t$$-distribution. We are considering two scenarios: • $$H_0$$: $$\mu_{d} = 0$$. The true mean difference in new textbook prices (UCLA – Amazon) is equal to zero. • $$H_A$$: $$\mu_{d} > 0$$. The true mean difference in new textbook prices (UCLA – Amazon) is greater than zero. Next, we check the independence and normality conditions: • The observations are based on a simple random sample, so independence is reasonable. • While there are some outliers, $$n = 68$$ and none of the outliers are particularly extreme, so the normality of $$\bar{x}$$ is satisfied. With these conditions satisfied, we can move forward with the $$t$$-distribution. ### 18.3.3 Observed statistic vs. null statistics As mentioned previously, the methods applied to a difference will be identical to the one-sample techniques. Therefore, the full hypothesis test framework is given as an example. Complete the hypothesis test started in the previous Example. To start, compute the standard error associated with $$\bar{x}_{d}$$ using the sample standard deviation of the differences ($$s_{d} = 13.42$$) and the number of differences ($$n = 68$$): \begin{align*} SE(\bar{x}_{d}) = \frac{s_{d}}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{13.42}{\sqrt{68}} = 1.63 \end{align*} The test statistic is the T-score of $$\bar{x}_{d}$$ under the null condition that the actual mean difference is 0: \begin{align*} T = \frac{\bar{x}_{d} - 0} { SE(\bar{x}_{d})} = \frac{3.58 - 0}{1.63} = 2.20 \end{align*} This value tells us that the sample mean difference in price,3.58, is 2.20 standard errors above zero (the null value).

To visualize the p-value, the approximate sampling distribution of $$\bar{x}_{d}$$ is drawn as though $$H_0$$ is true, and the p-value is represented by the shaded upper tail in Figure 18.8. This area is equivalent to the area above 2.20 on a $$t$$-distribution with $$df = n - 1$$ = 68 $$-$$ 1 = 67 degrees of freedom.

Using the pt function in R, we find the upper tail area of 0.0156.

In conclusion, we have strong evidence that Amazon prices are, on average, lower than the UCLA Bookstore prices for UCLA courses. Figure 18.8: Distribution of $$\bar{x}_{d}$$ under the null hypothesis of no difference. The observed average difference of 2.98 is marked with the shaded areas more extreme than the observed difference given as the p-value.

Create a theory-based 95% confidence interval for the average price difference between books at the UCLA Bookstore and books on Amazon.

Conditions for using theory-based methods have already been verified and the standard error computed in the previous Example.

To find the confidence interval, identify $$t^{\star}_{67}$$ using the R command: qt(0.975, 67) = 2.00, and plug it, the point estimate, and the standard error into the confidence interval formula: \begin{align*} \bar{x}_d \ \pm\ t^{\star} \times SE(\bar{x}_d) \quad\to\quad 3.58 \ \pm\ 2.00 \times 1.63 \quad\to\quad (0.32, 6.84) \end{align*} We are 95% confident that Amazon is, on average, between $0.32 and$6.84 less expensive than the UCLA Bookstore for UCLA course books.

We have strong evidence that Amazon is, on average, less expensive. How should this conclusion affect UCLA student buying habits? Should UCLA students always buy their books on Amazon?153

## 18.4 Chapter review

### Terms

We introduced the following terms in the chapter. If you’re not sure what some of these terms mean, we recommend you go back in the text and review their definitions. We are purposefully presenting them in alphabetical order, instead of in order of appearance, so they will be a little more challenging to locate. However you should be able to easily spot them as bolded text.

 paired data